Was it the surge....or has Moqtada al-Sadr's six month cease-fire quelled the violence in Iraq.

There is a restless quiet in Baghdad. Many say it is because of the 20,000 American troops Bush inserted in Iraq as the surge. John McCain, George Bush and Defense Secretary Gates agree. Or, is Iraq quieter because for the last six months a formidable enemy has refused to fight and faded into the sand.

Still, in parts of Baghdad, violence continues in the ancient back alleys. Fierce battles with Sunni insurgents take their violent toll, as their victims send messages of desperation for help to the Medhi Army. Normally, the Medhi Army, the most powerful arm of Shia Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr rushed to give aid to those involved in these treacherous fire fights.

For the past six months, their frantic calls have fallen on deaf ears. Local Medhi Army commanders have been turning down these desperate calls. They can do nothing because they are under strict orders from al-Sadr not to break a brokered cease-fire.

Declared on August 29, last year by firebrand Moqtada al-Sadr is a six month cease-fire in Iraq. His Medhi Army has the strength of 100,000 men, are a well trained, dedicated, formidable force. Various reasons are given for the Sadrist cease-fire and stand down. One stated is to purge and vet the ranks of unwanted criminal elements.

One reason not stated, is the cease-fire offers Moqtada al-Sadr the opportunity to regroup, retrain, and and rearm with weapons from his ally Iran. The Sadrist ability to inforce the cease-fire is quite impressive considering they still control half of Baghdad, and at least 80 percent of the Shia areas. However, al-Sadr's rhetoric, is still crusty anti-American. Even from Iran, he has not been marginalized.

Whatever the reason, the stand down of the Medhi Army is a 100.000 man insurgent force General Petraeus did not have to deal with during the past six months. He knows it, and applauds Moqtada al-Sadr's efforts to maintain the cease-fire. It has unquestionably reduced violence by 60 percent.

While politicans like John McCain, Joe Leiberman, and Neocon Bushites are touting how well the surge is working, General Petraeus is well aware the dynamic reduction in violence and deaths is because of Moqtada al-Sadr's cease-fire. He won't say it because the Bush administration wants Americans to believe it the surge that has quelled the violence. It is not!

To think an insertion of 20,000 American troops for a short term surge, would quell the violence baffles the mind. The question begging is; "Why didn't we do it five years ago?"

Unfortunately, the al-Sadr cease-fire is due to end shortly at the end of February. No one has any idea which way it will go. No one knows what al-Sadr will decide. Even his closest commanders will not hazard a guess. We may be able to count on it as long as al-Sadr decides the cease-fire is to his movements benefit.

The Sadrist have other agendas. They are in reality the only mass movement with strong Shia cultural and social networks that provides assistance to the estimated 43 percent of Iraqi poor who cannot feed their families.

The wait for hostilities continues, we cannot fight any enemy that fades into the sand.